County- and Municipal-Level Population Forecasts, 2015-2045
Analytical Data Report 022

County- and Municipal-Level Population Forecasts, 2015-2045

Product No.: ADR022
Date Published: 08/2016

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This report presents the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commisssion's (DVRPC's) adopted 2045 county- and municipal-level population forecasts and describes the method used to develop them. Population and employment forecasts are a critical component of long-range land use and transportation planning. As a part of DVRPC’s long-range planning activities, the Commission is required to maintain forecasts with at least a 20-year horizon, or to the horizon year of the long-range plan. DVRPC last adopted forecasts through the year 2040 in January 2012. Since that time, the Census Bureau has released 2015 population estimates and both the nation and the region have continued to recover from the significant economic recession that officially began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. In order to incorporate the 2015 Census estimates and maintain a 30-year planning horizon, DVRPC has prepared 2045 population forecasts for its member counties and municipalities. These forecasts were formally adopted by the DVRPC Board on July 28, 2016, and serve as the basis for DVRPC planning and modeling activities. Employment forecasts in five-year increments through 2045 are scheduled to be adopted in October 2016.

Geographic Area Covered: DVRPC's 9-county region, including Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Mercer counties in New Jersey, and Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia counties in Pennsylvania.

Key Words: population, population forecasts, age-cohort survival model, birth rates, survival rates, migration, Connections 2045, long-range plan

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The Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) fully complies with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Civil Rights Restoration Act of 1987, and related nondiscrimination mandates in all programs and activities. DVRPC is committed to ensuring that no person is excluded from participation in, or denied the benefits of, all programs and activities on the basis of race, creed, color, national origin, age, gender, disability, sexual orientation, or income level, as protected by Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and other related nondiscrimination mandates.

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