March 17, 2025
This past fall the DVRPC Board adopted a new set of projections extending to 2050 in collaboration with regional county planning partners through the Socioeconomic and Land Use Analytics Committee (SLUAC). These projections will inform the Update: Connections 2050: Plan for Greater Philadelphia, expected in September 2025.
As a part of its long-range planning activities, DVRPC is required to maintain forecasts that look at least 20 years into the future. This past fall the DVRPC Board adopted a new set of projections extending to 2050 in collaboration with regional county planning partners through the Socioeconomic and Land Use Analytics Committee (SLUAC). This committee is made up of agency staff across the area who analyze demographics and economic trends.
The 2050 Version 2.0 Population and Employment Forecasts for Greater Philadelphia uses updated data from the 2020 Census. This new data shows 130,000 more residents than expected in the previous plan, prompting DVRPC to develop an age-cohort model. This model projects county-level population changes by examining recent trends in birth, death, and migration rates. Employment forecasts also use current data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the National Employment Time Series to project job growth through 2050 for each county and municipality in DVRPC’s nine-county region.
The previous forecast, known as 2050 Version 1.0, used a land-use model that factored in demographics, housing costs, business sector clustering, and location preferences tied to travel times. While this model was effective, DVRPC was unable to incorporate it into the updated 2050 forecast, though it plans to return to a similar approach for future projections. The land use model’s projections were incorporated into 2050 V2.0 to help forecast where growth will be located in the region’s 350 municipalities.
Regionally, DVRPC projects a 7.8% population increase (around 459,000 new residents) between 2020 and 2050, though growth is expected to slow after 2035 due to an aging population. Philadelphia County is projected to gain the most new residents, with an increase of over 131,000, while Chester County is expected to grow the fastest in percentage terms, at 18.6%. Philadelphia, Chester, and Montgomery counties are each anticipated to gain around 100,000 or more new residents.
Employment in the region is projected to grow by 10.1%, adding about 357,000 new jobs by 2050. Much of this job growth is due to the post-COVID-19 economic rebound, which has already surpassed pre-pandemic employment levels. After 2025, job numbers are expected to remain relatively stable, with growth rates linked closely to the working-age population, which is not projected to grow substantially.
The DVRPC Board officially adopted these forecasts on October 24, 2024. These projections will inform the Update: Connections 2050:Plan for Greater Philadelphia, expected in September 2025. The data is available for viewing and download through DVRPC’s online Data Catalog and web map services. For a deeper dive into these projections and the methods behind them, watch for the upcoming 2050 Version 2.0 Population and Employment Forecasts Analytical Data Report, expected later this year.