Climate Projections for the DVRPC Region

METHODOLOGY: DVRPC hired the consulting firm ICF to use the U.S. Department of Transportation's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Data Processing Tool to process readily available downscaled climate data at the local level into relevant statistics for planners. This tool, which was developed by ICF, works with data used by the Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections (DCHP) website. This website houses climate model data from phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) of the World Climate Research Programme.

The Microsoft Excel^©-based tool enables users to estimate the number of extreme temperature and precipitation days per year for future climate scenarios out to the year 2099. For temperature, the tool can estimate the annual number of days above a certain temperature (e.g., 105°F) or below a certain temperature (e.g., 32°F). For precipitation, the tool can estimate the annual number of days with precipitation above a certain percentile expectation (e.g., 99th percentile).

DVRPC specified the following for ICF:
- GEOGRAPHY
  Resolution: County
- COUNTIES:
  1. Burlington County, NJ
  2. Camden County, NJ
  3. Gloucester County, NJ
  4. Mercer County, NJ
  5. Bucks County, PA
  6. Chester County, PA
  7. Delaware County, PA
  8. Montgomery County, PA
  9. Philadelphia County, PA
- TIME PERIODS
  - Base Period: 1961-1999
  - Near-Term: 2020-2039
  - Mid-Century: 2045-2065
  - End-of-century: 2081-2099
- EMISSIONS SCENARIOS
  - RCP 4.5
  - RCP 8.5
- CLIMATE MODELS
  - ccsm4
  - gfdl-cm3
  - gfdl-esm2m
  - ipsl-cm5a-mr
  - mri-cgcm3
- OUTPUT VARIABLES
  Temperature
  - Annual and Monthly Average Temperature
  - Annual and Monthly Maximum Temperature
  - Annual and Monthly Minimum Temperature
  - Days > Tmax = 90, 95, 100, 105F
  - Days with Tmin > 70F
  - Maximum Consecutive Days > Tmax = 90, 95, 100, 105F
  - Daily Freeze/Thaw Days
  - Diurnal Temperature Range
  - Cooling Degree Days
  - Heating Degree Days
- PRECIPITATION
  - Annual Precipitation
  - Monthly Precipitation
  - 5-Day Maximum Precipitation
  - 24-hour Rainfall for 100 years, 10 years
  - Maximum Dry Days
  - Daily Intensity Index
  - Days > 1, 2, 4 inches

Figures for Region and Counties

Click on the geography below to download the following figures specific for that geography:

Annual Precipitation in Inches
Average Annual Temperature
Change in Cooling Degree Days
Change in Heating Degree Days
Days per Year Above Specified Temperatures
Days Per Year Temperature Never Falls Below 70°F
Percentage Change In Monthly Rainfall Totals